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Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Emerging Social Impact of Global Growth Slowdown - Recession

Source: http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/30/news/international/china_migration.reut/index.htm
1. Chinese workers leaving cities in droves:

The social impact of the global growth slowdown is now becoming evident. The migration of over 130 million (rural) Chinese (prime drivers of China's long extended growth) to cities and industrial centres (as workers) is one of the largest migrations recorded. These 130 million workers / migrants - are known as China's "floating population". This floating population of workers rarely settle where they work (due to prohibitive residency rules) and they return in droves to their hometowns for the Chinese lunar new year & then go back to work, later in the year.
But today there appears to be a reverse migration. As demand for consumption in the world dips - the production centres of the world face a challenge of closing shutters.
It will be critical to see how many of these workers (floating population) do really return to work.


Source: http://biz.yahoo.com/hftn/081229/122908_miller_downwardmobility_fortune.html?.v=3
2. The Upside of downward mobility:
Fact: As much as 100 million Americans today live in families that are earning less in real terms than their parents did at the same age.
The rise of economies of China & India means the earnings picture for US is expected to get worse - One in three American jobs may be exposed before long to competition from workers overseas, resulting in putting an effective wage cap on large swaths of employment even if jobs don't actually move offshore.
More research dispels a myth that upward social mobility is higher in US as compared to Europe.
Post depression and world war, there was only America that was left standing with no competition (economic, business) in sight the growth in the subsequent years was astounding. The emergence of the classless society, distribution of prosperity was enabled by the Labor unions, a robust minimum wage, progressive taxes, and a sense of restraint on corporate boards regarding the salaries of chief executives - but those were the early days.
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